Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +27 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | ALA -5.8 (+21.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (+3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -5.9 (+21.1) | 141.7 (+3.3) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -9.7 (+17.3) | 143.0 (+2.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -11.2 (+15.8) | 146.8 (-1.8) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -6.7 (+20.3) | 142.8 (+2.2) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 12-7 |
| Home | 13-3 | 10-3 |
| Away | 3-7 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.5 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 69.8 |
| Massey | 6.4 (#61) | 9.4 (#31) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.53 (#49) | 3.08 (#7) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.19 (#54) | 3.89 (#17) |
| RPI | 0.736 (#13) | 0.794 (#3) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 21.6% |
| REB / G | 45.7 | 41.3 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 26.2% |
| ORB% | 36.9% | 38.2% |
| FT Rate | 17.7% | 13.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 42.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 24.1% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.9% | 15.6% |
Game Analysis
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