Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APSU +6 | 168 | Lost |
| Massey | DAY -2.0 (-8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.1 (+47.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -1.5 (-7.5) | 129.7 (+38.3) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -2.1 (-8.1) | 129.4 (+38.6) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -1.6 (-7.6) | 125.4 (+42.6) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 12-17 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 8-10 |
| Home | 13-4 | 6-5 |
| Away | 7-6 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 62.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.2 | 69.3 |
| Massey | -8.7 (#322) | -1.9 (#210) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.09 (#333) | -1.07 (#273) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.89 (#326) | -1.50 (#271) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#217) | 0.000 (#359) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | APSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 25.9% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 5.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 77.3% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.3% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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