Betting Lines
| Spread | BRY -15.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BCU +6 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | BRY -5.2 (+11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.6 (+1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRY -4.5 (+10.5) | 142.5 (+13.5) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRY -2.8 (+8.8) | 146.4 (+9.6) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BRY -2.4 (+8.4) | 146.3 (+9.7) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRY -3.4 (+9.4) | 141.4 (+14.6) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BCU | BRY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-21 | 22-10 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 16-2 |
| Home | 4-6 | 14-1 |
| Away | 4-13 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.5 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 74.0 |
| Massey | -9.9 (#335) | -4.7 (#272) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.16 (#281) | -0.48 (#215) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.80 (#286) | -0.43 (#203) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#146) | 0.562 (#116) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BCU | BRY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.7% | 33.8% |
| 3PT% | 24.5% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 30.3 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.7% | 41.9% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 22.4% | 22.5% |
| FT Rate | 15.4% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.8% | 59.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 60.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.7% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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