Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -32.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +33 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -35.0 (-2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.5 (-4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -25.5 (+7.5) | 150.4 (-7.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -24.8 (+8.2) | 150.8 (-7.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -34.4 (-1.4) | 150.0 (-7.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -33.5 (-0.5) | 149.7 (-6.7) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 7-11 |
| Home | 15-3 | 6-9 |
| Away | 9-2 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.1 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 73.1 |
| Massey | 14.0 (#15) | -12.3 (#346) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.27 (#26) | -1.32 (#297) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.24 (#31) | -1.77 (#284) |
| RPI | 0.781 (#7) | 0.478 (#210) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.4% | 36.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.64 | 1.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 13.0% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 20.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.4% | 10.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.3% | 61.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 9.8% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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