Betting Lines
| Spread | WOF -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WOF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WOF +17 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | WOF -17.5 (-0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.7 (-2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WOF -10.6 (+6.4) | 141.7 (-4.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WOF -11.8 (+5.2) | 140.6 (-3.6) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WOF -13.0 (+4.0) | 140.0 (-3.0) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WOF | HAMP |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Massey | 3.2 (#118) | -5.5 (#284) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#201) | -1.06 (#270) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.26 (#194) | -1.81 (#290) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#178) | 0.236 (#345) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WOF | HAMP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.2% | 32.1% |
| 3PT% | 21.7% | 23.3% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 28.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.57 | 0.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.5% | 38.7% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 17.5% |
| FT Rate | 36.2% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.1% | 44.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.8% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 63.3% | 60.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 42.9% | 44.8% |
Game Analysis
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