Betting Lines
| Spread | LIB -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 124.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LIB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MAN +16 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | LIB -10.9 (-26.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.5 (+9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIB -6.9 (-22.9) | 127.1 (+8.9) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIB -5.1 (-21.1) | 128.4 (+7.6) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LIB -4.7 (-20.7) | 128.9 (+7.1) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIB -5.3 (-21.3) | 127.8 (+8.2) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LIB | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 3-5 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 2-1 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#120) | -7.9 (#314) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#257) | -0.08 (#186) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.09 (#253) | -0.51 (#206) |
| RPI | 0.578 (#103) | 0.507 (#169) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LIB | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.4% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 26.1% | 19.2% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.65 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.1% | 43.5% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 25.0% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 16.8% | 29.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.2% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 23.3% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 65.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.