Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LONG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LONG +27 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | LONG -17.3 (+9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.4 (+6.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -13.3 (+13.7) | 141.6 (-4.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -15.0 (+12.0) | 141.6 (-4.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -15.6 (+11.4) | 142.0 (-5.0) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LONG | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Massey | 4.9 (#85) | -3.6 (#251) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#123) | -0.26 (#192) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.32 (#100) | -0.29 (#197) |
| RPI | 0.620 (#73) | 0.458 (#227) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LONG | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 32.3% |
| 3PT% | 38.9% | 17.9% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 45.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 17.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.70 | 0.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 36.2% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 25.8% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 38.6% |
| FT Rate | 10.2% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 12.4% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 16.9% |
Game Analysis
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