This will be our year, took a long time to come "This Will Be Our Year" - The Zombies
John Paul Jones Arena · November 20, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread UVA -24.0 Away covered
O/U 128.5 Under
Model Predictions
Spread Total UVA win
Actual UVA +16 120 Won
Massey UVA -11.6 (+4.4)
Massey Totals 126.3 (-6.3)
Bradley-Terry 67%
Weighted B-T 64%
Baseline Plus ML UVA -6.6 (+9.4) 123.6 (-3.6) 79%
Baseline ML UVA -5.9 (+10.1) 132.2 (-12.2) 75%
Baseline Tuned ML UVA -5.4 (+10.6) 131.4 (-11.4) 69%
Efficiency Plus ML UVA -9.3 (+6.7) 128.5 (-8.5) 86%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 12, 2024 UVA 6245 COPP

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UVA COPP
Overall 21-14 9-23
Conference 12-8 6-8
Home 11-7 3-6
Away 7-6 4-16
Neutral 3-1 2-1
Last 5 1-2 1-4
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 62.4 66.9
Avg Pts Against 60.1 74.7
Massey -4.0 (#257) -6.8 (#299)
Bradley-Terry -2.34 (#338) -1.12 (#277)
W. Bradley-Terry -3.85 (#345) -1.81 (#289)
RPI 0.373 (#301) 0.482 (#205)
Shooting & Four Factors UVA COPP
FG% 39.7% 34.1%
3PT% 31.5% 27.4%
REB / G 30.7 31.3
OREB / G 9.7 6.8
AST / TO 0.76 0.61
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 45.7% 40.7%
TOV% 22.2% 20.3%
ORB% 29.9% 16.6%
FT Rate 34.8% 24.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.9% 51.0%
Opp TOV% 23.6% 24.0%
DRB% 67.0% 64.2%
Opp FT Rate 13.5% 18.0%

Game Analysis

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