Betting Lines
| Spread | SLU -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SLU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SLU +17 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | SLU -18.8 (-1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.7 (-15.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SLU -18.3 (-1.3) | 148.0 (-15.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SLU -22.7 (-5.7) | 150.5 (-17.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SLU -22.6 (-5.6) | 149.4 (-16.4) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SLU | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-5 | 10-4 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 9.5 (#29) | -0.5 (#183) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#185) | -0.87 (#254) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.22 (#190) | -1.02 (#245) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#225) | 0.312 (#327) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SLU | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.8% | 40.7% |
| REB / G | 45.7 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 18.3 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 57.4% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 23.4% |
| ORB% | 41.7% | 20.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 12.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 58.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 27.6% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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