Betting Lines
| Spread | STET -1.0 Push |
| O/U | 144.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STET +1 | 119 | Lost |
| Massey | LAM -9.4 (-10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.0 (-30.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAM -2.4 (-3.4) | 135.4 (-16.4) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAM -4.3 (-5.3) | 144.8 (-25.8) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LAM -4.8 (-5.8) | 146.0 (-27.0) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAM -5.6 (-6.6) | 139.5 (-20.5) | 65% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAM | STET |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Massey | -4.0 (#258) | -4.6 (#268) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.95 (#263) | -0.95 (#264) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.30 (#261) | -1.46 (#267) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#229) | 0.458 (#229) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAM | STET |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 38.3% |
| 3PT% | 40.0% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 29.5 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 5.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 20.5% | 15.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 9.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 64.7% | 56.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.7% | 15.4% |
Game Analysis
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