Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SEMO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +12 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | SEMO -16.2 (-28.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 174.4 (-42.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SEMO -11.9 (-23.9) | 159.5 (-27.5) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SEMO -12.0 (-24.0) | 155.0 (-23.0) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SEMO -9.6 (-21.6) | 156.1 (-24.1) | 83% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 15, 2022 | ARST 68 – 61 SEMO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SEMO | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 18-11 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 8-7 |
| Home | 8-5 | 11-3 |
| Away | 5-10 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.2 | 68.8 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#218) | -9.7 (#331) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.48 (#141) | -0.51 (#217) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#165) | -0.68 (#219) |
| RPI | 0.576 (#105) | 0.375 (#299) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SEMO | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 30.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 18.8% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.8% | 33.1% |
| TOV% | 13.7% | 25.1% |
| ORB% | 19.4% | 23.8% |
| FT Rate | 46.0% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.1% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 9.2% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 47.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 43.1% | 32.9% |
Game Analysis
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