Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | ARST -138 SEMO +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +7 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | ARST -0.1 (+6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.7 (+1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -1.3 (+5.7) | 132.6 (-3.6) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -2.1 (+4.9) | 129.7 (-0.7) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -0.9 (+6.1) | 133.6 (-4.6) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -1.2 (+5.8) | 133.8 (-4.8) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 20, 2021 | ARST 72 – 60 SEMO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 19-17 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-8 | 9-4 |
| Away | 2-11 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.7 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 77.6 |
| Massey | -6.7 (#290) | -1.6 (#204) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.65 (#303) | -0.14 (#194) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.21 (#305) | -0.31 (#205) |
| RPI | 0.393 (#328) | 0.505 (#166) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 22.2% |
| FT Rate | 15.7% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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