Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +18 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | VILL -0.2 (-17.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.5 (-39.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -2.5 (-15.5) | 146.6 (-22.6) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -0.7 (-17.3) | 154.6 (-30.6) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -0.8 (-17.2) | 154.3 (-30.3) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TENN -0.3 (-18.3) | 155.9 (-31.9) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TENN | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 30-8 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 16-4 |
| Home | 16-0 | 12-1 |
| Away | 6-5 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 10-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.9 | 62.7 |
| Massey | 12.5 (#21) | 12.7 (#19) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#137) | 0.72 (#117) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.79 (#131) | 1.22 (#105) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#208) | 0.594 (#90) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TENN | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 50.3% |
| 3PT% | 42.9% | 48.8% |
| REB / G | 48.5 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 21.0 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.68 | 2.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 61.9% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 10.5% |
| ORB% | 48.3% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 15.2% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 56.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.9% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 76.4% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.9% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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