Betting Lines
| Spread | FIU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | GB +180 FIU -210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FIU +3 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | FIU -14.4 (+11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.4 (+2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FIU -9.2 (+6.2) | 129.2 (-6.2) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FIU -9.7 (+6.7) | 129.3 (-6.3) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FIU -11.4 (+8.4) | 129.1 (-6.1) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FIU -10.7 (+7.7) | 128.6 (-5.6) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GB | FIU |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 1-1 |
| Massey | -9.1 (#326) | 5.3 (#76) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.48 (#342) | 0.58 (#134) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.32 (#337) | 1.00 (#116) |
| RPI | 0.372 (#302) | 0.510 (#167) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GB | FIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.5% | 36.8% |
| 3PT% | 27.8% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 28.7 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.4% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 23.0% |
| ORB% | 21.8% | 24.0% |
| FT Rate | 14.7% | 16.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 42.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 60.8% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.6% | 16.4% |
Game Analysis
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