Betting Lines
| Spread | GW -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UML +11 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | GW -8.5 (-19.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.1 (-9.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GW -1.5 (-12.5) | 133.8 (-10.8) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GW -3.7 (-14.7) | 136.0 (-13.0) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GW -3.8 (-14.8) | 135.7 (-12.7) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GW -3.1 (-14.1) | 136.1 (-13.1) | 58% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GW | UML |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-18 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 8-5 | 8-6 |
| Away | 3-10 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.4 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.8 | 67.9 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#206) | -1.5 (#200) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#225) | 0.52 (#138) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#225) | 0.10 (#168) |
| RPI | 0.417 (#268) | 0.532 (#144) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GW | UML |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.4% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 27.1% | 28.4% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.1% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 23.7% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 17.1% | 14.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 23.7% |
| DRB% | 63.6% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.5% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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