Betting Lines
| Spread | AF -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AF +19 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | AF -2.7 (+16.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.2 (-1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HC -0.3 (+19.3) | 128.8 (-3.8) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AF -3.2 (+15.8) | 130.2 (-5.2) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AF -3.5 (+15.5) | 131.4 (-6.4) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AF -2.9 (+16.1) | 129.0 (-4.0) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | HC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-18 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 4-13 | 7-11 |
| Home | 7-6 | 5-9 |
| Away | 2-11 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 59.0 | 63.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 72.0 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#233) | -5.5 (#283) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.37 (#63) | -0.80 (#248) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.40 (#95) | -0.96 (#243) |
| RPI | 0.514 (#164) | 0.276 (#337) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | HC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 4.7 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.65 | 0.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 25.4% | 25.3% |
| ORB% | 17.3% | 23.9% |
| FT Rate | 13.5% | 9.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.5% | 57.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 76.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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