Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -3.0 Push |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +3 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | UNM -8.0 (-5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 172.4 (-13.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -3.2 (-0.2) | 155.4 (+3.6) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -7.4 (-4.4) | 161.4 (-2.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -9.6 (-6.6) | 162.9 (-3.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -7.5 (-4.5) | 163.4 (-4.4) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 5-12 | 16-4 |
| Home | 11-7 | 13-1 |
| Away | 2-9 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.7 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#140) | 2.5 (#128) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.11 (#170) | -0.51 (#219) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.12 (#166) | -0.53 (#208) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#130) | 0.500 (#187) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 41.7% |
| REB / G | 29.7 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 22.5% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 12.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 62.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.1% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 58.2% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.4% | 31.4% |
Game Analysis
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