Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +16 | 166 | Lost |
| Massey | UMBC -0.2 (-15.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (+24.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WCU -0.8 (-16.8) | 142.4 (+23.6) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WCU -1.1 (-17.1) | 141.8 (+24.2) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WCU -0.5 (-16.5) | 145.4 (+20.6) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WCU | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 11-7 |
| Home | 8-5 | 11-4 |
| Away | 2-14 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.2 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -3.8 (#256) | -3.6 (#251) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#228) | -0.26 (#192) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.83 (#230) | -0.29 (#197) |
| RPI | 0.453 (#242) | 0.458 (#227) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WCU | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 32.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 17.9% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 45.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 17.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 0.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 36.2% |
| TOV% | 24.0% | 25.8% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 38.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 12.4% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 16.9% |
Game Analysis
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