Betting Lines
| Spread | LT -15.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Over |
| Money | NWST +700 LT -1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NWST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LT +19 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | NWST -8.5 (-27.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.9 (+2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LT -0.8 (-18.2) | 144.5 (+2.5) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NWST -3.8 (-22.8) | 145.7 (+1.3) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NWST -4.9 (-23.9) | 145.8 (+1.2) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NWST -4.2 (-23.2) | 147.6 (-0.6) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 29, 2020 | LT 91 – 77 NWST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NWST | LT |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 1-1 |
| Massey | -8.0 (#315) | -7.8 (#312) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.46 (#305) | 0.12 (#169) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.00 (#296) | 0.03 (#172) |
| RPI | 0.443 (#247) | 0.521 (#156) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NWST | LT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 23.8% | 24.5% |
| REB / G | 30.7 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.1% | 44.8% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 21.6% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 8.1% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.6% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 21.1% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 61.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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