Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +10 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | HOW -4.5 (+14.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.1 (-21.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOW -1.2 (+11.2) | 142.0 (-6.0) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOW -3.6 (+13.6) | 154.4 (-18.4) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HOW -3.2 (+13.2) | 152.6 (-16.6) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOW -1.4 (+11.4) | 148.1 (-12.1) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Massey | -7.0 (#304) | 6.3 (#62) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.70 (#237) | 0.78 (#114) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#238) | 1.09 (#111) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#178) | 0.453 (#240) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | HOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.6% | 54.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 52.1% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 25.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.5% | 66.5% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 23.3% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 55.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.1% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 62.5% | 54.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.8% | 34.8% |
Game Analysis
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