Betting Lines
| Spread | FOR -13.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FOR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMES +2 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | FOR -13.0 (-15.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.1 (+19.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FOR -8.2 (-10.2) | 135.3 (+12.7) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FOR -10.3 (-12.3) | 134.9 (+13.1) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FOR -8.9 (-10.9) | 138.3 (+9.7) | 76% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FOR | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 11-16 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 6-8 |
| Home | 10-4 | 6-4 |
| Away | 3-9 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 62.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 68.7 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#208) | -6.0 (#290) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#168) | -1.76 (#320) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.01 (#174) | -2.32 (#311) |
| RPI | 0.406 (#276) | 0.190 (#351) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FOR | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 34.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 41.7% |
| TOV% | 22.0% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 7.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.3% | 13.0% |
Game Analysis
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