Betting Lines
| Spread | COLO -7.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | COLO -280 SIU +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +4 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | COLO -3.1 (-7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.3 (-15.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLO -2.9 (-6.9) | 144.3 (-14.3) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | COLO -2.6 (-6.6) | 145.7 (-15.7) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLO -3.9 (-7.9) | 143.2 (-13.2) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLO | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-6 | 11-4 |
| Away | 6-4 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 63.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 61.6 |
| Massey | 5.7 (#69) | 2.6 (#123) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.10 (#86) | -0.47 (#214) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.42 (#93) | -0.65 (#214) |
| RPI | 0.611 (#78) | 0.188 (#352) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLO | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.5% | 51.0% |
| 3PT% | 46.0% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 43.3 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.2% | 58.3% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 25.5% |
| ORB% | 42.1% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 42.1% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 78.9% | 80.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 14.5% |
Game Analysis
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