Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -28.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +31 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | UCSB -17.5 (+13.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.4 (+2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -10.6 (+20.4) | 135.9 (-4.9) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -11.1 (+19.9) | 134.7 (-3.7) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -14.0 (+17.0) | 134.4 (-3.4) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSB | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-11 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 8-5 | 3-15 |
| Home | 11-3 | 5-9 |
| Away | 5-7 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 62.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 74.4 |
| Massey | 7.2 (#51) | -1.5 (#201) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#191) | 0.56 (#135) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#193) | 0.62 (#147) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#99) | 0.516 (#162) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSB | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.0% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 15.4% | 40.0% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 16.0 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.7% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 26.5% |
| ORB% | 41.0% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 16.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 56.7% | 76.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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