Betting Lines
| Spread | MAN -4.0 Push |
| O/U | 134.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MAN +4 | 106 | Won |
| Massey | UNA -3.7 (+7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.6 (-29.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNA -1.0 (+5.0) | 137.3 (-31.3) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNA -0.4 (+4.4) | 136.4 (-30.4) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNA -0.3 (+4.3) | 133.1 (-27.1) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MAN | UNA |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Massey | -7.9 (#314) | -4.2 (#263) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#186) | -0.40 (#208) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.51 (#206) | -0.58 (#211) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#169) | 0.500 (#178) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MAN | UNA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 31.1% |
| 3PT% | 19.2% | 25.0% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.5% | 37.7% |
| TOV% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 4.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.3% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 65.2% | 60.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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