Betting Lines
| Spread | FUR -15.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FUR +17 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | FUR -24.7 (-7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.6 (+0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FUR -15.8 (+1.2) | 142.5 (+2.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FUR -17.7 (-0.7) | 138.4 (+6.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FUR -16.9 (+0.1) | 141.6 (+3.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FUR -17.0 (-0.0) | 144.9 (+0.1) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FUR | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Massey | 9.4 (#30) | -6.5 (#296) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.06 (#30) | -1.88 (#326) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.52 (#24) | -3.58 (#340) |
| RPI | 0.696 (#25) | 0.307 (#330) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FUR | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 33.0% |
| 3PT% | 40.7% | 18.2% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 36.9% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 25.7% |
| ORB% | 23.4% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 14.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
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