Betting Lines
| Spread | USD -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUF +2 | 112 | Lost |
| Massey | USD -9.3 (-11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.1 (-33.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USD -3.3 (-5.3) | 138.3 (-26.3) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USD -7.1 (-9.1) | 145.3 (-33.3) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USD -6.8 (-8.8) | 145.9 (-33.9) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USD -7.1 (-9.1) | 142.4 (-30.4) | 75% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USD | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 11-4 |
| Home | 8-6 | 11-2 |
| Away | 4-8 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.9 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 66.4 |
| Massey | 5.1 (#79) | 4.6 (#95) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.43 (#57) | -0.34 (#200) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.11 (#58) | -0.15 (#184) |
| RPI | 0.558 (#119) | 0.453 (#238) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USD | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 49.4% |
| 3PT% | 47.5% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 43.2% |
| FT Rate | 17.8% | 28.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.4% | 15.0% |
Game Analysis
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