Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUF +22 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | BUF -18.7 (+3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.9 (-4.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -11.5 (+10.5) | 151.2 (+0.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -12.3 (+9.7) | 151.0 (+1.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -11.1 (+10.9) | 151.7 (+0.3) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | RID |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-11 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 13-6 | 8-12 |
| Home | 9-3 | 7-6 |
| Away | 9-5 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.7 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 5.6 (#72) | -4.3 (#265) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.82 (#112) | -1.53 (#312) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.05 (#113) | -2.57 (#316) |
| RPI | 0.633 (#61) | 0.287 (#335) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | RID |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 38.0% |
| 3PT% | 28.0% | 23.0% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 41.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 42.3% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.9% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 76.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.3% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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