Betting Lines
| Spread | NEB -12.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEB +18 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | NEB -6.8 (+11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.6 (+2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEB -4.6 (+13.4) | 138.6 (-0.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEB -4.8 (+13.2) | 136.2 (+1.8) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEB -5.2 (+12.8) | 136.8 (+1.2) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEB -4.8 (+13.2) | 137.2 (+0.8) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEB | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 7-23 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 5-15 |
| Home | 7-12 | 5-8 |
| Away | 3-8 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.5 | 72.0 |
| Massey | -8.3 (#320) | -6.4 (#293) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.20 (#337) | -0.79 (#247) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.90 (#327) | -0.94 (#242) |
| RPI | 0.377 (#298) | 0.344 (#316) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEB | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.8% | 37.6% |
| 3PT% | 27.9% | 22.9% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.0% | 42.7% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 23.1% |
| ORB% | 20.6% | 22.7% |
| FT Rate | 30.6% | 16.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.1% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 62.6% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.4% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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