Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -7.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +14 | 80 | Won |
| Massey | NAVY -4.0 (+10.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.9 (-48.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -6.3 (+7.7) | 121.1 (-41.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -3.6 (+10.4) | 129.6 (-49.6) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -3.4 (+10.6) | 130.8 (-50.8) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -5.6 (+8.4) | 125.6 (-45.6) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#224) | -6.5 (#296) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.07 (#183) | -1.88 (#326) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#181) | -3.58 (#340) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#175) | 0.307 (#330) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 33.0% |
| 3PT% | 25.4% | 18.2% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 0.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 36.9% |
| TOV% | 23.4% | 25.7% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 14.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.1% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 76.1% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
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