Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRWN +3 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | BRWN -0.4 (+2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.5 (-6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRWN -0.2 (+2.8) | 136.1 (-9.1) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRWN -1.5 (+1.5) | 137.1 (-10.1) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRWN -1.1 (+1.9) | 138.3 (-11.3) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRWN -1.7 (+1.3) | 139.0 (-12.0) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRWN | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-16 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 5-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 6-7 | 12-2 |
| Away | 6-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 65.2 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#261) | -4.4 (#266) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#222) | -2.47 (#341) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#234) | -3.72 (#342) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#161) | 0.326 (#320) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRWN | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 38.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 22.1% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 40.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 15.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 42.4% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 14.4% | 13.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.9% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.1% | 34.7% |
Game Analysis
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