Betting Lines
| Spread | TEX -29.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TEX +34 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | TEX -18.1 (+15.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.2 (-15.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TEX -18.7 (+15.3) | 134.0 (-10.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TEX -16.5 (+17.5) | 141.3 (-17.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TEX -18.5 (+15.5) | 139.6 (-15.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TEX -19.4 (+14.6) | 136.8 (-12.8) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEX | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 1-17 |
| Home | 16-3 | 7-9 |
| Away | 4-7 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 62.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.6 | 73.3 |
| Massey | 9.2 (#33) | -0.2 (#177) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#93) | -0.14 (#189) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.55 (#85) | -0.18 (#187) |
| RPI | 0.646 (#53) | 0.527 (#149) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEX | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.8% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 40.6% | 40.6% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 36.7% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 14.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.4% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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