Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +6 | 110 | Lost |
| Massey | AUB -0.5 (-5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.2 (-15.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -0.4 (-5.6) | 128.3 (-18.3) | 41% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -1.6 (-4.4) | 128.6 (-18.6) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -0.6 (-6.6) | 132.7 (-22.7) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USF -1.3 (-7.3) | 133.5 (-23.5) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 12, 2022 | AUB 67 – 59 USF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 28-6 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 15-3 |
| Home | 6-10 | 16-0 |
| Away | 2-9 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 2-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 57.5 | 78.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.9 | 67.2 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#273) | 4.6 (#94) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#240) | 0.70 (#120) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.17 (#256) | 0.96 (#121) |
| RPI | 0.442 (#248) | 0.469 (#218) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 36.5% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 22.7% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 40.9% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 11.1% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.2% | 43.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 22.9% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 9.8% | 16.7% |
Game Analysis
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