Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -32.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +13 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | SJU -35.4 (-22.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.8 (+10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -25.8 (-12.8) | 153.2 (+7.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -26.1 (-13.1) | 146.2 (+14.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -36.3 (-23.3) | 152.0 (+9.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -33.8 (-20.8) | 151.9 (+9.1) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 4-22 |
| Conference | 8-11 | 5-13 |
| Home | 13-6 | 3-8 |
| Away | 4-8 | 2-16 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.6 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 79.2 |
| Massey | 15.0 (#8) | -11.7 (#343) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#154) | -0.41 (#212) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.79 (#132) | -0.58 (#210) |
| RPI | 0.493 (#192) | 0.569 (#108) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | FDU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 54.9% | 28.9% |
| 3PT% | 43.2% | 10.0% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 0.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 64.6% | 30.3% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 24.1% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 20.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 60.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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