Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -7.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EVAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +16 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | UCF -0.5 (-15.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.1 (+11.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -4.2 (-11.8) | 130.8 (+3.2) | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -6.3 (-9.7) | 137.9 (-3.9) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -1.4 (-14.6) | 130.4 (+3.6) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -1.6 (-14.4) | 131.0 (+3.0) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 24, 2022 | UCF 76 – 56 EVAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EVAN | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-24 | 18-12 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 9-9 |
| Home | 4-9 | 13-3 |
| Away | 2-11 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L8 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 58.8 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 68.2 |
| Massey | -6.0 (#287) | 3.2 (#117) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#197) | 3.28 (#4) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#199) | 4.87 (#6) |
| RPI | 0.483 (#201) | 0.736 (#13) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EVAN | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 32.2% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 5.0 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.48 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 39.9% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 24.3% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 15.2% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 23.9% |
| DRB% | 76.5% | 64.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.0% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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