Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 122.5 Over |
| Money | UCF -1000 EVAN +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +20 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -16.4 (+3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 116.5 (+15.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -14.8 (+5.2) | 132.2 (-0.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -16.6 (+3.4) | 128.6 (+3.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -12.7 (+7.3) | 128.9 (+3.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -15.2 (+4.8) | 127.5 (+4.5) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 20, 2021 | UCF 75 – 59 EVAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 5-27 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 1-19 |
| Home | 11-6 | 3-10 |
| Away | 5-7 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.5 | 76.0 |
| Massey | 4.6 (#90) | -4.7 (#259) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#129) | -1.33 (#271) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.19 (#121) | -2.29 (#284) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#108) | 0.415 (#278) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | EVAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 35.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 22.7% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 14.2 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 39.0% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 37.2% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 15.1% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.1% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.5% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 78.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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