Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -14.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +38 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -20.2 (+17.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.6 (-8.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -15.3 (+22.7) | 139.0 (-5.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -15.3 (+22.7) | 146.1 (-12.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -14.9 (+23.1) | 142.9 (-8.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -13.8 (+24.2) | 142.6 (-8.6) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 8-12 |
| Home | 15-2 | 10-5 |
| Away | 8-3 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 66.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.1 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 11.5 (#23) | 0.0 (#175) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.93 (#99) | 0.47 (#143) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.31 (#102) | 0.63 (#146) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#173) | 0.538 (#137) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.3% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 46.3 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 16.3 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.81 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 41.2% | 36.2% |
| FT Rate | 11.3% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.9% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 29.4% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 84.1% | 83.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 16.0% |
Game Analysis
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