Betting Lines
| Spread | COLO -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Over |
| Money | COLO -475 DUQ +380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLO +8 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | COLO -12.6 (-4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (+19.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLO -10.6 (-2.6) | 136.6 (+23.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLO -8.9 (-0.9) | 141.1 (+18.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLO -10.1 (-2.1) | 142.8 (+17.2) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLO -8.9 (-0.9) | 142.6 (+17.4) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLO | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 6-24 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 1-16 |
| Home | 12-6 | 3-11 |
| Away | 6-4 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L17 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 73.4 |
| Massey | 5.7 (#69) | -6.9 (#300) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.10 (#86) | -2.19 (#336) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.42 (#93) | -3.08 (#331) |
| RPI | 0.611 (#78) | 0.379 (#296) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLO | DUQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.5% | 36.0% |
| 3PT% | 46.0% | 25.8% |
| REB / G | 43.3 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 15.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.2% | 41.1% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 42.1% | 35.9% |
| FT Rate | 42.1% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 57.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 24.5% |
| DRB% | 78.9% | 79.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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