Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -31.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +42 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -21.7 (+20.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.9 (-13.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -18.9 (+23.1) | 145.1 (-3.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -18.5 (+23.5) | 152.4 (-10.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -22.2 (+19.8) | 151.8 (-9.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -21.1 (+20.9) | 148.7 (-6.7) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | BELL |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 7-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 0-3 |
| Massey | 12.2 (#22) | -0.8 (#189) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.27 (#71) | -0.65 (#232) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.90 (#69) | -0.75 (#223) |
| RPI | 0.659 (#46) | 0.539 (#135) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | BELL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 55.7% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 27.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 6.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.89 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 61.1% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 20.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 58.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.0% | 35.6% |
Game Analysis
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