Betting Lines
| Spread | MINN -11.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MINN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MINN +29 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | MINN -16.5 (+12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.5 (-12.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MINN -11.9 (+17.1) | 141.9 (-14.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MINN -14.2 (+14.8) | 141.3 (-14.3) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MINN -15.1 (+13.9) | 139.5 (-12.5) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MINN | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-17 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 15-6 |
| Home | 8-7 | 14-2 |
| Away | 3-9 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.0 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.2 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 4.9 (#86) | -2.8 (#234) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.86 (#11) | 0.34 (#158) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.49 (#9) | 0.31 (#162) |
| RPI | 0.782 (#5) | 0.250 (#343) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MINN | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 42.9% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 5.7 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 15.9% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 33.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 25.6% |
| DRB% | 84.0% | 63.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.4% | 3.3% |
Game Analysis
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