Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +6 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -10.9 (-4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.1 (-0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -9.7 (-3.7) | 139.3 (+0.7) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -9.1 (-3.1) | 142.4 (-2.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -10.1 (-4.1) | 142.6 (-2.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -9.8 (-3.8) | 141.2 (-1.2) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | DETM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 10-7 |
| Home | 8-8 | 9-1 |
| Away | 2-10 | 5-15 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#174) | -2.0 (#211) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#193) | -0.70 (#238) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.24 (#192) | -0.90 (#236) |
| RPI | 0.442 (#248) | 0.449 (#244) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | DETM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 40.7 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 11.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.5% | 60.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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