Betting Lines
| Spread | MRST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRST +4 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | MRST -8.8 (-4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.2 (+2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRST -6.1 (-2.1) | 146.8 (+5.2) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRST -7.5 (-3.5) | 148.0 (+4.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRST -7.6 (-3.6) | 144.8 (+7.2) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRST | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 9-9 |
| Home | 7-6 | 9-4 |
| Away | 7-9 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 77.4 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#131) | 2.2 (#132) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.13 (#84) | -0.40 (#209) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.01 (#62) | -0.16 (#186) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#212) | 0.396 (#281) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRST | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 41.4% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 26.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 5.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.62 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 56.6% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 16.7% |
| FT Rate | 14.0% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.0% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 51.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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