Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -6.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.0 Over |
| Money | UNC +205 PUR -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +9 | 177 | Lost |
| Massey | PUR -12.7 (+3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.1 (+11.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -6.3 (-2.7) | 161.3 (+15.7) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -6.6 (-2.4) | 160.0 (+17.0) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -7.1 (-1.9) | 157.9 (+19.1) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -6.1 (-2.9) | 160.2 (+16.8) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-10 | 29-8 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 14-6 |
| Home | 15-2 | 16-1 |
| Away | 8-3 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 6-5 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.9 | 79.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 68.4 |
| Massey | 4.6 (#93) | 17.3 (#6) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.00 (#8) | 1.30 (#68) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.95 (#5) | 2.05 (#61) |
| RPI | 0.683 (#30) | 0.538 (#137) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.8% | 51.9% |
| 3PT% | 38.7% | 41.7% |
| REB / G | 41.7 | 46.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 15.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.7% | 61.6% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 46.5% |
| FT Rate | 34.7% | 33.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 43.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.2% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 79.8% | 80.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.6% | 15.9% |
Game Analysis
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