Betting Lines
| Spread | GAST -15.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | W&M win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GAST +18 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | GAST -11.7 (-6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.2 (-21.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GAST -11.2 (-6.8) | 141.7 (-5.7) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GAST -8.6 (-9.4) | 149.9 (-13.9) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GAST -9.3 (-8.7) | 149.3 (-13.3) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GAST -11.0 (-7.0) | 148.5 (-12.5) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | W&M | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-27 | 18-11 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 9-5 |
| Home | 4-10 | 8-4 |
| Away | 1-14 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L10 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.1 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 68.2 |
| Massey | -10.2 (#336) | 1.5 (#145) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.55 (#343) | -0.04 (#181) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.04 (#348) | -0.10 (#182) |
| RPI | 0.424 (#259) | 0.512 (#166) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | W&M | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.0% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 44.9% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.6% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 24.3% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 11.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.3% | 66.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 82.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.2% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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