Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONM +12 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | MONM -3.5 (-8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.4 (+10.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MONM -1.4 (-10.6) | 147.2 (+14.8) | 36% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MONM -3.5 (-8.5) | 144.0 (+18.0) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MONM -2.7 (-9.3) | 149.3 (+12.7) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MONM -2.4 (-9.6) | 148.8 (+13.2) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-19 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 11-9 |
| Home | 9-7 | 9-5 |
| Away | 1-10 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 67.3 |
| Massey | -5.3 (#280) | 7.0 (#56) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.21 (#285) | 2.04 (#31) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.81 (#287) | 3.11 (#33) |
| RPI | 0.261 (#340) | 0.567 (#112) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 16.3% | 39.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 45.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 76.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 35.9% |
Game Analysis
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