Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 120.0 Under |
| Money | VCU -175 UTC +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTC +2 | 110 | Lost |
| Massey | VCU -2.3 (-4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 105.2 (+4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VCU -0.2 (-2.2) | 126.7 (-16.7) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -1.9 (-3.9) | 124.1 (-14.1) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -1.4 (-3.4) | 124.2 (-14.2) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTC -1.9 (-0.1) | 125.4 (-15.4) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VCU | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-10 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 14-4 |
| Home | 12-4 | 12-3 |
| Away | 9-3 | 12-4 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.1 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.4 | 65.4 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#141) | 8.1 (#43) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.21 (#75) | 2.46 (#20) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.53 (#44) | 3.78 (#18) |
| RPI | 0.596 (#86) | 0.681 (#32) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VCU | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.0% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 25.0% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 15.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.59 | 1.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.0% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 28.5% | 13.5% |
| ORB% | 23.4% | 43.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 33.9% | 41.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 28.0% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 62.3% | 64.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 16.3% |
Game Analysis
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