Betting Lines
| Spread | PAC -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTEP +9 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | PAC -6.9 (-15.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.1 (-2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PAC -3.7 (-12.7) | 140.6 (-3.6) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PAC -4.4 (-13.4) | 139.5 (-2.5) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PAC -3.6 (-12.6) | 137.3 (-0.3) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PAC | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#195) | 0.8 (#160) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.62 (#315) | -0.38 (#206) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.37 (#313) | -0.39 (#201) |
| RPI | 0.219 (#347) | 0.528 (#148) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PAC | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.5% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 22.6% | 26.3% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.58 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.4% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 12.8% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 60.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 23.1% |
| DRB% | 78.8% | 63.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 34.0% |
Game Analysis
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