Betting Lines
| Spread | GASO -9.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GASO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GASO +20 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | GASO -10.7 (+9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.2 (+24.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GASO -8.2 (+11.8) | 132.1 (+19.9) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GASO -7.3 (+12.7) | 131.6 (+20.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GASO -8.5 (+11.5) | 130.2 (+21.8) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GASO | HAMP |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Massey | 5.2 (#77) | -5.5 (#284) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.40 (#23) | -1.06 (#270) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.60 (#22) | -1.81 (#290) |
| RPI | 0.687 (#27) | 0.236 (#345) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GASO | HAMP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.5% | 32.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 23.3% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 28.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 38.7% |
| TOV% | 23.5% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 17.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.0% | 44.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.1% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 63.4% | 60.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.3% | 44.8% |
Game Analysis
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