Betting Lines
| Spread | SFA -11.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SFA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SFA +13 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | SFA -0.7 (+12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.3 (+32.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTSU -0.7 (+13.7) | 135.9 (+25.1) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MTSU -1.9 (+14.9) | 135.8 (+25.2) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTSU -1.8 (+14.8) | 135.5 (+25.5) | 40% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 10, 2023 | MTSU 67 – 62 SFA |
| Nov 26, 2022 | MTSU 75 – 63 SFA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SFA | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-3 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 2-0 |
| Massey | -7.8 (#313) | 0.3 (#170) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.03 (#331) | 0.80 (#113) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.16 (#332) | 0.98 (#119) |
| RPI | 0.417 (#270) | 0.667 (#40) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SFA | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 28.0% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 7.4% | 32.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 62.9% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.8% | 26.9% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 84.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.2% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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