Now she's with one of my good-time buddies, they're drinking in some crosstown bar. "Whipping Post" - The Allman Brothers
William R. Johnson Coliseum · November 20, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread SFA -11.0 Home covered
O/U 138.0 Over
Model Predictions
Spread Total SFA win
Actual SFA +13 161 Won
Massey SFA -0.7 (+12.3) — —
Massey Totals — 128.3 (+32.7) —
Bradley-Terry — — 29% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 18% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML MTSU -0.7 (+13.7) 135.9 (+25.1) 39% ✗
Baseline ML MTSU -1.9 (+14.9) 135.8 (+25.2) 43% ✗
Baseline Plus ML MTSU -1.8 (+14.8) 135.5 (+25.5) 40% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 10, 2023 MTSU 67 – 62 SFA
Nov 26, 2022 MTSU 75 – 63 SFA

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SFA MTSU
Neutral 2-3 6-2
Last 5 0-1 2-0
Massey -7.8 (#313) 0.3 (#170)
Bradley-Terry -2.03 (#331) 0.80 (#113)
W. Bradley-Terry -3.16 (#332) 0.98 (#119)
RPI 0.417 (#270) 0.667 (#40)
Shooting & Four Factors SFA MTSU
FG% 42.6% 45.4%
3PT% 34.8% 28.0%
REB / G 34.0 33.0
OREB / G 13.0 9.0
AST / TO 0.94 0.92
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.5% 51.9%
TOV% 21.1% 17.7%
ORB% 31.0% 26.5%
FT Rate 7.4% 32.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 62.9% 51.6%
Opp TOV% 23.8% 26.9%
DRB% 72.4% 84.2%
Opp FT Rate 17.2% 21.5%

Game Analysis

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