Betting Lines
| Spread | MTSU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | MTSU -120 SFA +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTSU +12 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | SFA -2.9 (+14.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.5 (+7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -0.6 (+12.6) | 131.4 (+6.6) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -1.7 (+13.7) | 134.4 (+3.6) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -2.2 (+14.2) | 136.3 (+1.7) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -0.8 (+12.8) | 133.9 (+4.1) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 10, 2023 | MTSU 67 – 62 SFA |
| Nov 20, 2021 | SFA 87 – 74 MTSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTSU | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 12-2 | 12-4 |
| Away | 3-11 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -1.3 (#205) | 1.6 (#145) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.02 (#259) | 1.25 (#92) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.61 (#255) | 2.31 (#79) |
| RPI | 0.336 (#342) | 0.517 (#150) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTSU | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.2% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 23.8% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 30.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 56.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.2% | 29.5% |
| DRB% | 85.5% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.3% | 32.0% |
Game Analysis
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