Betting Lines
| Spread | FAU -9.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAU +19 | 177 | Won |
| Massey | FAU -17.7 (+1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.2 (+27.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAU -11.6 (+7.4) | 144.9 (+32.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAU -11.2 (+7.8) | 147.8 (+29.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAU -11.6 (+7.4) | 150.0 (+27.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAU -11.5 (+7.5) | 150.4 (+26.6) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAU | UND |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Massey | -2.9 (#237) | -11.8 (#345) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.01 (#330) | -1.33 (#298) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.75 (#324) | -2.62 (#318) |
| RPI | 0.349 (#312) | 0.381 (#295) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAU | UND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 38.6% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 78.3% | 77.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.1% | 33.1% |
Game Analysis
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